Catalina Foothills, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

615
FXUS65 KTWC 160937
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
237 AM MST Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active monsoon pattern will continue today, with the potential
for severe thunderstorms being more limited than yesterday due to
recent active weather, but a primary threat of flash flooding
still exists.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prior monsoon conditions, including persistent cloud cover, are
  likely to limit solar heating today. This should suppress
  convective potential to some extent, leading to more isolated
  and weaker thunderstorms that will be slower to initiate. Any
  precipitation will generally favor higher terrain areas, with
  localized downpours still capable of posing a flash flooding
  threat.

- A low to moderate HeatRisk remains in place for the week, and
  the WPC has placed the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive
  rainfall today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

While severe thunderstorm activity initially began in the early
afternoon yesterday, storm intensity did not ramp up until well into
the evening hours. With the high pressure associated with these
storms moving east into the four corners region, widespread but
light precipitation currently persists and will into the early
morning hours of Wednesday.

CAPE values reaching up to 500 J/kg in localized areas are expected,
sufficient for some convective development, yet significantly lower
than yesterday`s values. The highest probabilities for severe
weather are concentrated near the New Mexico border. Enhanced
wind fields are also focused along this corridor, though guidance
suggests a limited threat. That said, 24-hr precipitation totals
highlight isolated yet notable potential, with ensemble
probabilities indicating a 10-20% chance of exceeding 2 inches of
rainfall produced by the strongest storms in select locations.
These include the Tucson metro and areas south and east.

The primary threat today will be heavy rainfall and the potential
for flash flooding if the residual cloud cover from the current MCS
does not inhibit convection.

Have a plan when it comes to encountering flash flooding. Turn
around, don`t drown.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, CAPE values will  gradually
increase, but lower precipitable water content on Thursday will
limit day two thunderstorm activity. 24 hour precipitation greater
than one inch is limited to a 10% probability late Thursday/early
Friday for southern Pima County.

There will be some day to day variability in high temperatures
over the next week, but generally expect them to be within a few
degrees of normal for this time of year. HeatRisk will remain low to
moderate for the rest of the week.

A drier period is likely to set in at some point in the next
week, but it is highly uncertain when this will be. This is
because there is low predictability in the evolution of a closed
upper low off the Baja coast over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
SCT-BKN 6-12k ft AGL through the period. Isolated to scattered
TSRA/SHRA are expected after 16/20Z for portions of southeast
Arizona. Wind gusts of 40-50 kts are possible with the
thunderstorms today, especially near KSAD. Otherwise, SFC winds
mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A more active monsoon pattern continues the next couple of days.
Deeper atmospheric moisture moving into the region will bring the
potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding today.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal today and
Thursday, then near normal late this week. Winds will remain
westerly from 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts at or above 25 mph.
Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas will be 20-30% through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...HBK/SAL/TGD
Aviation...HBK/SAL/TGD
Fire Weather....HBK/SAL/TGD

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